The main answer to this question is the same (IMO) as with a lot of decisions in open source - resources and (relatedly) people’s attention. All of this work is being done on a volunteer basis, and simply having people interested enough to contribute is a significant factor. Right now, we have people engaged and willing to develop, promote and discuss PEP 600. If we leave this for whatever period your suggestion translates to (months, maybe even years?) then we risk losing that interest, and have PEP 600 get abandoned through lack of interest. And then, when the existing standards do start reaching EOL, we have another rush to make a decision.
I’m not saying this is the only (or even the major) factor in the process here, but it is a factor.
As a second point, @njs has claimed a number of times that work is being done under the existing PEPs that could be avoided if PEP 600 gets accepted - so that’s extra resource and effort freed up by a quick decision. I’ve not seen any concrete details on how much effort would be saved, and in all honesty, I wonder if @njs might not be optimistic about the savings here, but I’ve very little idea of the details of what work is involved, so I’m fine with taking his word that there are savings to be gained from a reasonably quick decision. Again, I’m treating this as a minor, but not irrelevant, factor in not delaying too long.
First of all, by its very nature this is entirely a matter of opinion. None of us can know what might happen. But secondly, and more importantly, why is it so disastrous if we do have to revise PEP 600? PEPs (or rather the features they define) get revised and updated all the time. And furthermore, PEP 600 says nothing about transition processes. Nor did the previous manylinux PEPs. Any problems we find in the transition from manylinux1 → 2010 → 2014 are likely (again, just IMO) to be transition problems, and so not in the scope of PEP 600 anyway.
To summarise, I hear your points, and acknowledge them. But as the one making the decision on the PEP I don’t plan on delaying a decision for so long that the momentum is lost. I’m not deciding in haste (ask @njs what he thinks, if you don’t believe me !) but we’ve had a decent amount of time for discussion now, and I think we need to move past vague “we mightn’t have spotted everything” concerns. We’re not aiming for perfection here, just for agreement on a workable way ahead.
If @njs wants to add some words to the PEP summarising the concern here and adding a response, that would be great, but I’m not insisting on it. Equally, if he has anything further to add in response, that would be good too.