@Deb, I would like to see a drill down on the expenditure/revenue numbers.
As @dstufft says, the key counterfactual is, how much income (currently attributed to pycon US) would there be if the money were spent elsewhere?
Question: are you attributing any donations to the pycon US revenue which would flow anyway, pycon US or not? If so, then “accounting magic” would mask the real losses that pycon US is incurring. (in an extreme case, 1 million dollar)
Looking at the 2023 tax form, about 1 million of the 2 million revenue attributed to pycon US seem to be grants and donations.
Many of these are regular donors which probably have earmarked the donations in their yearly budgets. So, would this not flow reliably, even if pycon US would not happen?
More generally, are the donations correctly attributed to pycon US revenue?
If you look at the 2023 tax form, you have:
- 1,13 million revenue from “program services”, that would be things like ticket sales (part I, 9)
- 2,14 million expenses for pycon US (part III, 4a)
- 2,08 million revenie for pycon US claimed (part III, 4a)
Overall, this means that ca 0,9 million are (most likely) donations - and attributed to pycon US in the 2023 calculation, and most likely also in Deb’s 2025 calculation.
If they are not correctly attributed, even partly, the balance for pycon US be much worse than claimed by Deb.
Counterfactual: not running pycon US
In effect, I believe the idea of taking that 2.3M and spreading it out would likely be a one time event,
The correct counterfactual to consider is not “spending the entire expenditure”, but "spending the loss”.
Even in the most optimistic scenario, pycon US is making losses - so, not running it would leave 200.000 dollar more in the purse (2025 counterfactual). Which could be spent on, e.g., not having a total grant freeze. Or one more staff member at 200.000 yearly salary.
And the more of the revenue in grants/donations is not caused by pycon US, the more surplus there would be. In the most extreme case, this could be all 1m of the donations/grants attributed to pycon US revenue, so a total of 1.200.000 million USD surplus to spend.