Hi everyone!

I hope you can help me. I would like to know which subject area to learn about given my project. I have done lots of searching but can’t seem find the exact topic.

I am working with some time series weather data. Rather than “forecasting” the next result each time a new data point is entered I would like to find patterns in data that lead to a high probability result.

For example a successful pattern would be in 90% of instances, every time we have 5 days of plus 30 degree heat the 6th day is 28 degrees and above.

Or in 75% of instances of 3mm rainfall, the following day always had 1mm or above.

Hopefully you can see what I am trying to do. Rather than forecast each day, I want to identify patterns that lead to relatively high probable forecasts. So I wouldnt have a new forecast every day, far from it, once a week or month “the stars would align” and we could make a pretty solid forecast for the following day.

Sorry, long post but hopefully you can point me in the direction of the areas I need to study in order to create something of real worth.

Thanks very much